Your Media Guide to Planning 2027 Budgets

Part of our series on growing your brand without a giant budget.

UK advertising investment is forecast to reach £53.5 billion in 2027. That is a real, well-sourced number, and it is also not telling you anything about what to do with your own budget next year. Here is what the data behind that headline actually means for a business setting a 2027 media plan, not a national market forecast.

What the growth forecast actually means

The latest Advertising Association and WARC Expenditure Report forecasts the UK ad market growing 8.2% to £50.5 billion in 2026, then a further 5.9% to £53.5 billion in 2027. Those are nominal figures, the raw pound value of total UK ad spend. The IPA Bellwether report adds an important correction: S&P Global Market Intelligence’s real-terms forecast, which strips out inflation, puts adspend growth at just 2.3% for 2027. Most of the headline growth in that £53.5 billion figure comes from inflation and a handful of fast-growing categories, not from every business simply having more to spend. Plan against the real number, not the headline one.

Confidence is cautious, but budgets are still rising

The same Bellwether data for the second quarter of 2026 shows a net balance of 6.9% of UK companies increased their marketing budgets, with 23.8% raising spend against 16.9% cutting it. That is happening even as businesses feel less confident about their own financial prospects, which fell to a net balance of -9.6% in the same quarter, and industry-wide sentiment sits at -25.1%. In other words, most businesses are choosing to keep investing in marketing precisely because the outlook is uncertain, not in spite of it. If you are nervous about committing a 2027 budget in this climate, you are planning alongside the majority of the market, not against it.

Where 2027 growth is concentrated, and where it isn’t

The AA/WARC forecast is not spread evenly. Retail media is set to grow 13% in 2027 on top of 15.9% in 2026, social media investment rose 17.7% in the first quarter of 2026 alone, and digital out-of-home climbed 17.6% in the same period. Addressable TV and online radio are both growing at double-digit rates too. At the same time, cinema investment fell 17.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, national newsbrands fell 3.7%, and regional newsbrands fell 9.7%. The headline market is growing, but it is being pulled up by a concentrated group of fast-growing, largely digital and data-led formats, while several traditional formats are shrinking.

The shift back towards longer-term brand building

One of the more useful signals in the Bellwether data is not about spend levels, it is about what kind of spend is growing. Within main media, video advertising investment climbed to a net balance of 8.2% in the second quarter of 2026, its highest reading in almost two years. Over the same period, spend on “other online” activity, shorter-term activation advertising, was cut for the first time in seven quarters, falling to a net balance of -5.1%. Out of home budget cuts eased to their third-mildest reading in the channel’s entire history.

That is a genuine shift in priorities, not a seasonal blip, and it lines up with the 60/40 split between brand-building and activation spend we set out in The Long and the Short of It. Even larger, more established advertisers are rebalancing away from short-term digital activation and back towards channels that build demand over time. A 2027 budget built entirely around last-click activation is moving against where the wider market is actually heading.

What this means for setting your own 2027 budget

Start from your own sector and stage, not the national headline figure. A realistic budget as a share of revenue, how much lead time your bookings need, and the right split between brand-building and activation spend will matter far more to your results than whether the UK market as a whole grows 5.9% or 2.3%. Lock in any bookings that benefit from early planning well ahead of peak periods, something we cover in Planning Your Q4 in the Summer and Booking Closer to the Date, and protect a genuine share of brand-building spend even as the overall market tilts towards fast-growing digital formats.

Your 2027 budget planning checklist

• A budget built from your own sector and revenue benchmarks, not the national market growth figure
• Real-terms growth expectations set against 2.3%, not the larger nominal headline number
• A genuine split protected between brand-building and activation spend, in line with wider market movement back towards longer-term channels
• Any early-booking opportunities locked in well ahead of 2027’s peak periods
• A channel mix reviewed against where growth is actually concentrated, not where it was last year

Want help turning the national forecast into a realistic 2027 budget for your business?

We help smaller businesses set a media budget that reflects their own sector and ambition, not a headline number from a national report. Drop us an email at sales@hurstmediaagency.co.uk and we will talk it through with you.